Canada’s changing climate is significantly affecting our health and well-being. The latest national science assessment, Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action, describes how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of existing health risks related to extreme heat, wildfires, floods, air pollution, declining water quality and availability, and causing and/or exacerbating vector-borne, infectious, and chronic diseases, including mental health impacts. Climate change is also creating additional stress and increasing costs for the people, facilities, and programs that work together to protect our health, including healthcare infrastructure. In an already strained health system, climate change widens existing inequities, including access to healthcare and health services. Therefore, a focus on equity and on supporting the leadership of impacted communities is essential when trying to understand and address these challenges."
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research
CLIMATE
on food security within The Great Lakes Basin
CHANGE
IMPACTS OF
Weather trends
Extreme weather events have already taken their toll on the Midwest. The 2012 Midwestern heat wave and drought caused more than $30 billion in economic damage. Extremely warm days (above 90°F) will increase for regions bordering the Great Lakes, especially in the southern parts of the United States. By century’s end, areas within the Great Lakes Basin will see an increase of 17 to 40 extremely warm days as annual average temperatures continue to rise. [source].
"Science tells us that there's a whole microbiome that is a living, breathing world under our feet. It's just like we understand the microbiome in the human gut. If we lose our soil's organic matter, we lose the ability to grow crops that we eat. That's being lost around the world and being washed away, blown away and burned away... The science community tells us that in the next several decades, farmers around the planet will loose enough arable soil to grow food. What are we going to eat then?"
- Jenn Pfenning, President of the National Farmers Union & Vegetable Farm Owner in New Hamburg, Ont.
Climate models show that Canada’s agricultural regions will likely see drier summers from coast to coast, but increased winter and spring precipitation. This means that farmers have to deal with too much water during the seeding season and too little water during the growing season. Much of southern Canada will be drier overall in the summer, and could also face an increase in short-lived but very intense rainfall events. [source].
Growing trends
The stresses associated with climate change has already started decreasing agricultural productivity in The Great Lakes Basin. Changes in seasonal precipitation have caused spring flooding and excessively wet soil conditions, and therefore planting is delayed. This puts crops at greater risk during hotter and drier conditions later in their season. This then increases demand for irrigation to mitigate crop losses. [source].
Additionally, hot temperatures interfere with pollination in corn and other crops, and this also reduces yields. Climate change will likely reduce crop yields for both soybean and maize by 10% - 30% by mid-century in the southern parts of the Great Lakes watershed. [source].
In the next few decades, longer growing seasons and rising carbon dioxide levels will increase yields of some crops [source]. Intensity of agriculture in The Great Lakes region is expected to increase. [source]. Longer frost-free seasons, increases in growing degree days, and increased atmospheric CO2 should yield better crop outputs. However, the Natural Resources Canada warns: “A single extreme event, i.e., later frost, extended drought, excess rainfall during harvest period, can eliminate any benefits from improved ‘average’ conditions”.
“In 2022, Michigan produced 180 million pounds of tart cherries with a value of $36.5 million. In 2023, it’s estimated to be 120.5 million pounds. Traverse City is known as the “Cherry Capital of the World.” Southwest Michigan produces 70 to 75 percent of the U.S. tart cherry industry. On Memorial Day weekend in 2023, Doug White brought an excavator to his property and pulled out all the tart cherry trees on his farm — some of them 6-year-old trees just coming into fruit. Mr. White was fed up with the price growers receive versus the cost of production.” [source]
“I didn’t want to watch their slow death after raising them all.” - John Pulcipher after uprooting his 150-year-old cherry farm just outside Traverse City in July 2023. [source]
CENTRAL
CANADA
Opportunities
As growing seasons extend, new crops can be grown further north. For northern areas of central Canada, there’s more frost-free days, and longer growing seasons. This is creating opportunities for warmer-weather crops including corn, soybeans and maize production. [source].
Increased evapotranspiration from higher summer temperatures will increase water stress in plants, however, it can be offset by higher atmospheric CO2 which increases water use efficiency. [source].
Threats
Warmer spring weather will extend growing seasons, however, wetter springs will water-log fields, increase soil erosion and nutrient runoff, and can delay seeding operations. [source]
Increased temperatures affect livestock health, and can result in reduced milk, egg and meat production and even fatalities. This increases cooling costs for producers. [source]
More variability in spring and fall temperatures can stress fruit trees causing blossom loss due to late frosts. [source]
By the 2050s, Ontario farmers may no longer be able to grow certain varieties of apples or wine grapes. By the 2080s, prolonged heat waves could kill a quarter of the province’s cows and pigs. [Source]
Barrie's Asparagus Farm
In May 2022, early frosts destroyed the entire asparagus crop for some farmers in southern Ontario. Tim Barrie in Cambridge, Ont., owns Barrie’s Asparagus Farm; “Once the frost hits, the crop is completely lost”, he says. That meant thousands of pounds across 20 acres was destroyed due to four consecutive nights below zero. “This is probably the worst frost and freezing that we’ve ever add. Once the stuff that’s above ground is gone, it’s gone.” Barrie’s frustration is echoed for all 97 asparagus growers in the province. “It’s the same for our community and even across Ontario. We produce somewhere between 25 and 30 million pounds a year and probably by the end of this season we’ll produce half of that.” These are the things that impact price and availability of vegetables. [Source]
Vergers Villeneuve Ranch
In May 2023, there was a series of cold nights which ruined apple-picking season for some orchards in eastern Ontario, which meant they never offered any ‘pick-your-own’ activities. Michel Villeneuve's farm in Clarence-Rockland would typically need about 100 apple trees to open to the public. In 2023, only around 10 bore fruit. [Source]
NORTHERN
CANADA
Opportunities
Longer growing seasons may increase the potential for greenhouse production due to reduced winter heating costs. [source].
Threats
Impacts on viability of ice roads, affecting access and food security for imported foods as well as for locally harvested food. [source].
Increased frost-free season facilitates limited expansion of northern agriculture. [source].
Increased temperatures can also lead to issues like crop sunburn from extreme heat, which can reduce annual yields for farms by as much as 40%. [Source]
CLIMATE JUSTICE
Climate change is affecting the length of produce growing seasons in The Great Lakes Basin and the long-term impacts from increased weather events directly affects agriculture processes, causing significant reductions in crop yield outputs. This, in turn, threatens the population's food access and therefore security. Soil and crops need to be adapted to the changing climate at an equal rate, at minimum, if we have any chance at helping our future generations. By investing in agriculture processes (any of them; growing, processing, packaging, storing, transporting, etc.,) we are improving/creating food access.
Plant Hardiness Zones Map 2024
Natural Resources Canada is working on the first update to its plant hardiness zones map since 2014, hoping to have the map – which gardeners rely on when determining what plants will thrive in their region – available sometime in 2024.
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The update comes on the heels of the United States Department of Agriculture’s latest plant hardiness map, updated in November 2023 for the first time since 2012, which NPR reported to see roughly half the country shift into a new half zone as temperatures warmed.
Research Areas of Interest
Plant Science
Climate change, the long-term shift in weather patterns caused by anthropogenic release of CO2 to the atmosphere, is an established fact and is having an impact on global temperature and precipitation patterns. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, surface temperature was 1.09ºC higher between 2011 and 2020 than between 1850 and 1900 m with 2023 being recorded as 1.5ºC above preindustrial levels, this is likely to continue to increase to mid-century causing further intensification of variation in the global water cycle, global monsoon precipitation, and the severity of wet and dry events in all ecosystems. Climate change is expected to affect almost every environment on earth and have large societal impacts. [source].
Geothermal Science
The worldwide deployment of renewable energy has seen significant growth over the last decade, driven by increasing awareness of the impacts of climate change and the associated need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Geothermal energy will play an important role in fostering a clean energy transition, as the technology offers a reliable source of baseload power that reduces emissions and improves energy security. [source].
